The nightmare second half of the NFL season continues after another rough Week 16 where I went 6-9-2 for -3.62 units. The 2024 edition of the Road to 272 Bets is on its way to being the second losing season and its worst record yet.
You know what they say, either you win or you learn and I've learned plenty this time around. Still, we have two weeks left to try to soften the damage so that's exactly what I'm going to try to do.
We have games on five of six days starting on Wednesday and no one wants to lose money over the holidays so let's try to find some winners. It's time to dive into the Week 17 edition of the Road to 272 Bets.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
Season-to-date record: 113-122-5 (-17.21 units)NFL Week 17 Best Bets for Every GameChiefs vs. Steelers Prediction
The Chiefs will enter this game with some bad injury luck. Not only will the Steelers likely get George Pickens back for the first time in a few weeks, but they have some major injuries of their own they have to deal with including Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Jack Cochrane. That's going to be tough for Kansas City to deal with on the road in a short week.
The Chiefs may be 14-1, but their metrics don't back that record up. Their middle of the pack in most areas and have benefited from late-game heroics and favorable bounces. It's going to be hard to rely on those against a team as well-coached and disciplined as the Steelers.
I'm going to take the points with the Steelers on their home field on Christmas.
Ravens vs. Texans Prediction
Both teams are dealing with wide receiver issues which could cause issues on Wednesday. The Texans have lost Tank Dell for the season and with John Metchie III questionable, they may be down to just Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson as the only viable options at the position. Zay Flowers of the Ravens also missed practice on Sunday as he deals with a shoulder injury that could keep him out from Wednesday's game.
On top of the offensive injuries, these two defenses have been two of the best in the NFL lately. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank fourth in opponent EPA per play and first in opponent success rate. The Texans' defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate in that same time frame.
With all of that in mind, I think a total of 46.5 is a tad too high in this one.
Seahawks vs. Bears Prediction
Let's not overthink this play. I'm going to lay the points on the Seahawks, who are the far superior team in this matchup.
The Bears' defense, which was a strength in the first half of the season, has been abysmal of late. Dating back to Week 11, they rank 30th in the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. The Seahawks defense ranks third and 11th in those two respective stats in the same time frame.
I'm not going to put much stock into the Bears' offensive performance against a banged-up Lions team in Week 16. This is a lopsided affair and the Seahawks have multiple ways to win and cover in Chicago on Thursday night.
Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction
The Chargers have had some hiccups in recent weeks, but let's remember they just got through a gauntlet of games. Their last six matchups have been against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos, a tough run for any team to face. Now, they get to face their first "easy" opponent in a while and I think they'll prove they're the superior team.
I could list plenty of stats that will demonstrate the Chargers are the better squad, but none of them will be surprising. I think the metric that is the most notable in this game is the Patriots' red zone and third down offense against the Chargers defense. The Patriots have the second-worst red zone offense in the league, scoring a touchdown on just 47.73% of red zone trips. Now they face the league's best red zone defense. The Chargers allow their opponents to score a touchdown on only 44.74% of red zone trips against them.
The Patriots are also 26th in third-down offense while the Chargers are 10th in third-down defense. If New England can't score touchdowns in the red zone or convert on third down, this game is going to be a blowout in favor of Los Angeles.
Broncos vs. Bengals Prediction
I know it's blasphemy to bet the UNDER in a game involving the Cincinnati Bengals, but I think this is the perfect time to do so. While the Bengals passing offense is arguably the best in the NFL, they're going to have one of their toughest tests of the season against the Broncos. Denver ranks first in opponent dropback EPA and third in opponent dropback success rate. They also allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt at 6.1.
I also have concerns for the Broncos offense. Their numbers fall off significantly when playing on the road this season. Their yards per play fall from 5.4 to 4.8, their points per game decreases from 27.7 to 21.1, and their red zone touchdown rate falls off a cliff from 70.83% at home to 52.00% on the road.
There are too many signs pointing to the UNDER to not bet it at 50.0.
Cardinals vs. Rams Prediction
As I've pointed out in recent weeks, Kyler Murray's numbers throughout his career have fallen off in December and that trend has held true in 2024. Now that he and the Cardinals have been eliminated from the playoffs, I don't expect things to get better, especially considering they're playing a Rams team that has historically cranked up their level of play in the final month of the year.
The Cardinals are at their best when their running game is going but now they could be down their top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson, potentially leaving them with Michael Carter on Sunday.
It's time to sell all your Cardinals stock.
Cowboys vs. Eagles Prediction
One of the rules of the Road to 272 Bets is that I have to place my bet for every game on Monday night, which is unfortunate in situations like this where we don't know the injury status of a start quarterback, or in this case, the top two quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts is in concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett is suffering from a rib injury.
That leaves me no choice but to take the points with the Cowboys. The betting market is now treating this game as if Hurts can go so we have to go the opposite side and if news comes out that he'll miss the game, we'll be sitting with a great ticket at Cowboys +9.5. We followed this strategy last week when Patrick Mahomes was questionable and ended up with a great price on Chiefs +2.5.
Even if Hurts does go, it's hard to count out a Cowboys team that continues to play hard despite being eliminated from the postseason. Cooper Rush may not be a great quarterback, but he has been serviceable since replacing Dak Prescott. It's also tough to discount Dallas when the Cowboys seemingly get three points whenever they reach their opponent's 40-yard line. Brandon Aubrey has been automatic from 50+ yards at a rate we haven't seen before.
Jets vs. Bills Prediction
We're keeping the handicap for this game as straightforward as possible. This is a matchup between the best offense in EPA per play and the worst defense in opponent EPA per play since Week 10. You won't find a more hot offense and you also won't find a more cold defense.
The Bills can attack teams both on the ground and through the air and the Jets can't defend either, leaving Buffalo with plenty of options to rack up points on the scoreboard.
The only potential concern with laying this many points on the Bills is that if the Chiefs win and the Ravens lose on Saturday, Buffalo will be locked into the No. 2 seed, leaving little reason for the Bills to play this game as hard as they normally would. If they rest their starters in the second half or use a limited playbook, I'll feel less comfortable about them winning by double-digits.
Raiders vs. Saints Prediction
As long as Spencer Rattler (or Jake Haener) is at quarterback for the Saints, we simply can't bet on them. Those two have been amongst the worst at the position in the league this season and add that in with an offense that will likely still be out all of their top weapons and it's a rough situation for the New Orleans faithful.
The Raiders may not be a good team either, but at least they have healthy weapons on offense including Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Aidan O'Connell has also been a serviceable quarterback at times this season. I won't hesitate to take the point with Las Vegas.
Colts vs. Giants Prediction
I've been extremely critical of Anthony Richardson this season, but two quarterbacks rank worse than him in EPA+CPOE Composite; Spencer Rattler and Drew Lock. It's not yet confirmed whether Lock will be playing in this game as he has an MRI on his shoulder, but Tommy DeVito is no better.
In a game involving two of the worst quarterbacks professional football has to offer, I'm obligated to take the UNDER.
As a whole, the two offenses in this game rank 29th in 32nd in EPA per play. The Colts have been able to run the ball successfully, but that's not enough to make me think it'll lead to this being a high-scoring affair. I'll take the UNDER in what will likely be an ugly game overall.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Panthers have been impressive of late, but despite taking the Bucs to overtime a few weeks back, I can't trust them in this spot. This matchup is all about the run game. The Panthers' recent success has largely been due to a stout rushing attack. 45.32% of their offensive yards gained over their last three games have been from their running game. Now, they have a Bucs defense that has allowed just 2.8 yards per carry over their last three games while ranking second in opponent rush EPA and third in opponent rush success rate since Week 10.
The opposite is true on the other side of the football. The Bucs' rush attack has been one of the best in the NFL behind Bucky Irving and now they face a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate since Week 10.
In what's likely a must-win game for Tampa Bay, I'll lay the points on them on their home field.
Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction
I've bet on the Titans too much this season to stop now. While both teams are basement dwellers in the NFL in terms of record, only one of them is basement dwellers in terms of metrics and statistics. The Titans outrank them in EPA per Play and Success rate on both sides of the ball and they enter Week 17 at 20th in Net Yards per Play (-0.2) while the Jaguars are 28th at -0.7.
It's a true toilet bowl game, but I still have faith in the Titans no matter how many bets they've lost for me in 2024.
Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction
The Browns don't have enough pieces to overcome having Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their quarterback. Jameis Winston may have had a low floor with turnovers, but his ceiling at least gave the Browns a fighting chance. Amongst 46 quarterbacks who have played at least 75 snaps this season, DTR comes in dead last in adjusted EPA per Play.
The Dolphins have plenty of issues of their own, but they will still have something to play for if either the Chargers or Broncos lose on Saturday. If nothing else, they eclipse the Browns when it comes to skill and talent.
It also helps the weather doesn't look too bad in Cleveland for Sunday, well above freezing, which is good news for Miami.
Packers vs. Vikings Prediction
Momentum is a real thing and the Packers seem to be playing their best football of the season. Teams getting better as the season goes on is a sign of a great coach and that's supported by Matt LaFleaur's 20-3 record as head coach of the Packers in December.
After their recent surge of fantastic football, the Packers now rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play. The Vikings, while continuing to win, have fallen to 11th in that stat and 21st over their last three games. The underlying numbers show that despite both teams continuing to stack up wins, it's the Packers who have been playing better football of late.
I'll take Green Bay to get the job done as a slight underdog.
Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction
The Falcons control their destiny entering the final weeks, but they have a tough test ahead of them in the Washington Commanders. Unfortunately, this is a nightmare matchup for the Falcons. They have historically struggled against quarterbacks who can scramble and their defense which hasn't been able to consistently put pressure on opposing passers is going to open them up for Jayden Daniels to attack them in several different ways on Sunday night.
Offensively, Michael Penix Jr. wasn't asked to do much in Week 16 against the Giants and while the easy first start was beneficial for him, this is a huge step up in competition. A road prime-time game against one of the better teams in the NFL with a playoff spot on the line may prove to be too much for the rookie in his second start.
Considering the Commanders have an elite offense, the Falcons aren't going to be able to rely on their defense to win this game for them. Penix Jr. will have to step up and I have concerns surrounding his ability to do so, especially with Drake London dealing with a banged-up hamstring. The Commanders rank third in opponent dropback success rate since Week 10.
Lions vs. 49ers Prediction
I bet against the Lions last week with the belief a team can only sustain so many defensive injuries before they struggle to win with margin. Unfortunately, that strategy didn't work due to the Lions still finding a way to score almost every time they touched the ball. Instead of trying the same strategy this week, I'm going to take the OVER so I can both fade their banged-up defense while also betting on their seemingly unstoppable offense.
The 49ers may be eliminated, but Brock Purdy is still playing for a contract and he should be able to pick apart a Lions secondary that has as many injuries as it does. If Caleb Williams can throw for 334 against them last week, Purdy can do some damage as well.
