The NFL offseason has been a wild ride, with big-name players changing teams and superstars being dealt in blockbuster trades. While some notable players are still free agents or could be traded, I think it’s safe to assert that most of the significant moves have been made as we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NFL Draft.
As a result, let’s look at how the numerous moves around the league have altered the draft value of some of the biggest studs in fantasy football. Whether it's a player like Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill, you might be surprised at where some of the old faces in new places have landed in my latest solo five-round mock draft.
This mock includes 12 fantasy teams and is based on a PPR scoring system. These teams used different "strategies" with their first three overall picks, so you can see how the roster is built at the top. Notice, no team took a quarterback in the first four rounds.
Teams 1, 7, 10: Running back, running back, wide receiver
Teams 2, 3: Running back, wide receiver, wide receiver
Team 4: Running back, wide receiver, running back
Team 5, 9: Wide receiver, running back, wide receiver
Team 6: Running back, wide receiver, tight end
Team 8: Running back, running back, running back
Team 11: Wide receiver, tight end, wide receiver
Team 12: Wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver
ROUND 1
1.1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
1.2. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
1.3. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
1.4. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
1.5. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
1.6. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
1.7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
1.8. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
1.9. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
1.10. Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
1.11. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
1.12. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Taylor emerged as the best running back in fantasy football last season. He scored 20-plus fantasy points nine times, including one game where he put up 53.4 points. Taylor led the league with 1,811 rushing yards, which was a bananas 552 yards more than the second-best runner, Nick Chubb, who finished with 1,259 rushing yards. He’ll be the consensus No. 1 overall pick heading into 2022 drafts. Henry rushed for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in eight games before he went down with an injured foot. Had he been able to finish the season, he might have been the first back in the league's history two rush for 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons (he was on pace for 1,991 rushing yards).
Kupp is coming off the greatest fantasy football season of all time among wide receivers, scoring 439.5 points. That passed the previous record set by Jerry Rice in 1995 when he scored 414.04 points. In his following season, Rice experienced a decline of 594 receiving yards, seven touchdowns and 118.9 fantasy points (7.5 points per game). Kupp will be great again, but regression seems imminent. McCaffrey has missed most of the last two seasons due to injuries, so he could fall closer to the end of the first round in some drafts. His talent is just so tempting despite the major risks involved.
Kamara remains a first-round pick, but he's coming off a disappointing season compared to 2020. He finished with 67 targets and 47 catches. Those were both career lows. In fact, Kamara had never had fewer than 97 targets or 81 catches in his previous four seasons with the Saints. He could be facing a league-imposed suspension, but I'll keep him as a top-10 pick for now until we hear about any potential league discipline.
I have Williams ranked as if Melvin Gordon will not be back in Denver. Williams will drop out of the first round in my future mock drafts if he returns. The round ends with a pair of supremely talented wideouts, Jefferson and Chase, who earned the right to be first-rounders in all 2022 drafts. They'll begin a run of more wide receivers in Round 2.
ROUND 2
2.13. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
2.14. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
2.15. Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2.16. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
2.17. D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
2.18. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
2.19. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
2.20. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
2.21. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2.22. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
2.23. A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
2.24. Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Notes: Samuel had a breakout season in 2021, finishing third in points among wideouts with 77 catches, 1,405 receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns. He also proved to be an absolute nightmare to tackle again, leading all wide receivers with 22 broken tackles and 291 yards after contact. During the season, no other wideout had more than 12 broken tackles (CeeDee Lamb). Kelce moved up a few spots in the second round compared to my first mock draft with the trade that sent Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.
Speaking of Hill, he dropped to the bottom half of the second round due in large part to the downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins also have a ton of weapons, including Jaylen Waddle. Fournette will be back in Tampa Bay, making him a low-end No. 1 fantasy runner (for now). Adams might be the best wide receiver in the NFL, but he’s dropped out of Round 1 after being traded to the Raiders.
No offense to Derek Carr, but he's not Aaron Rodgers, and the Raiders have more mouths to feed than the Packers had in recent seasons. Swift missed four games last season due to injuries, but he still finished as the RB15 in PPR leagues and averaged more than 16 points per game. The trade that sent Amari Cooper to the Browns has the value of Lamb on the rise. He should have a career season in 2022. Mitchell does come with some risk due to injuries, but he's still a high-end No. 2 running back.
ROUND 3
3.25. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
3.26. Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.27. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
3.28. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
3.29. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.30. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
3.31. Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
3.32. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
3.33. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
3.34. D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
3.35. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
3.36. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Hopkins was a disappointment last season, but he scored eight touchdowns and should see plenty of targets from Kyler Murray in Arizona. Godwin is coming off a torn ACL, so his draft stock does come with some level of question, but he will have Tom Brady throwing him the football again. This is the lowest I have had Elliott ranked in a fantasy football mock, but you have to be at least a bit concerned about his durability and the presence of Tony Pollard. Andrews will be the second tight end off the board in most fantasy drafts, but some level of regression is coming for the veteran in 2022.
Barkley's time as an elite fantasy running back appears to be over. He's been plagued by injuries for the better part of the last two years, during which time he’s averaged just 3.5 yards per rush. He barely finished in the top 30 in points among backs this past season. Jones finished outside of the top five fantasy backs for the first time in the last two years in 2021, and the emergence of A.J. Dillon has made him a No. 2 runner.
McLaurin didn’t meet expectations last season, but the addition of Carson Wentz is good news for his outlook. Metcalf’s stock took a big hit when the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson, and it doesn’t help that his current No. 1 quarterback is Drew Lock.
ROUND 4
4.37. Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
4.38. James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
4.39. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
4.40. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
4.41. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
4.42. Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans
4.43. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
4.44. David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
4.45. D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
4.46. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
4.47. Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
4.48. Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Akers miraculously returned from a torn Achilles to play in the postseason, but will the Rams use him in a committee with Darrell Henderson? My guess is no, but he's a risk-reward No. 2 runner at this point. Conner has no chance to duplicate the 18 touchdowns he scored last season, but he's now the unquestioned top back in Arizona after Chase Edmonds signed with the Dolphins. The Falcons lack weapons on the offensive side, so Pitts should see many targets from new quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Thomas has barely played in the last two seasons and is difficult to project at this point. I have him ranked as a low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout. Dobbins missed last season with an injured knee, but he's a young runner who should rebound sooner rather than later. I love Carter's potential in the Jets' offense next season. While small in stature, he's a versatile running back who could still bust out in the stat sheets.
Waller falls two rounds compared to his 2021 ADP totals, but he’s still one of the top tight ends in fantasy football. However, the addition of Adams will hurt his ceiling.
ROUND 5
5.49. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
5.50. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
5.51. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
5.52. Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
5.53. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
5.54. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
5.55. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
5.56. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
5.57. Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
5.58. Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
5.59. Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
5.60. Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
St. Brown was a league winner for fantasy fans at the end of 2021, and I don’t think the addition of D.J. Chark will hurt his stock. Kittle was fourth in points among tight ends last season, but he still drops to Round 5 with the emergence of Deebo Samuel.
Smith-Schuster is the current No. 1 wideout for the Chiefs, but the team is certain to add more talent at the position in the NFL draft. For now, I like JuJu as a No. 2 fantasy option. In this mock, Allen is the lone quarterback, but I see a big run at the position in the next two to three rounds. Williams was a top-12 fantasy wideout last season, and staying in Los Angeles with superstar quarterback Justin Herbert is a big plus.
Lockett finished as the WR16 this past season, but he was very inconsistent and will now be catching passes from Lock (or Baker Mayfield?) and not Wilson. Moore might be ranked higher than you'd think after his rookie season, but I like him to bust out in the stat sheets as a sophomore. Patterson will remain in Atlanta, but he won’t duplicate his top-10 fantasy finish among running backs. I see him as more of a flex option. Singletary was a star down the stretch last season, but the Bills wanted to sign J.D. McKissic and have been tied to Iowa State running back Breece Hall in recent NFL mocks. As a result, I see Singletary’s stock dropping very soon.
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